# StratMac Research Library

*Last updated: 2026-08-22*
*Total papers: 70* (recounted from the `papers/` directory on 2026-08-22; +10 RE-sector entries)

## Original StratMac studies

- DeepSeek v4 Flash (principal author; M. Landis, advisory). **Relative Wealth Signals for the "Renegade" G20 Economies: A Methodological Investigation** (2026-08-07). Documents every source and USD-conversion method evaluated for the Turkey/Argentina/EU wealth cards, the empirical validation against UBS anchors, the structural reason high-inflation economies cannot be FX-converted from WID, and the decision to leave them unpublished.
  → [relative_wealth_signals_renegade_g20_methodology.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/relative_wealth_signals_renegade_g20_methodology.md)

- DeepSeek 2.5 Flash (principal author; M. Landis, advisory; contact Strategic.Macroeconomics@gmail.com). **Forecasting Recessions from a Broad, Lag-Aligned Signal Panel, and the Forward-Horizon Disruption-Impulse Signal** (2026-08-12, rev. 2026-08-13). Peer-review-ready working paper on the five-stage recession pipeline. Reports the forward-horizon method showing trade-policy shocks lead recessions by ~12-18 months (r=+0.55) despite ≈0 coincident correlation — while energy (coincident, not leading) and biological (COVID-outlier) are correctly demoted. The headline signature is honestly bounded: at an effective sample of n=3 episodes (53 autocorrelated months) its moving-block bootstrap 95% CI spans zero ([−0.138, +0.841]) and its autocorrelation-preserving permutation p≈0.08 — a *statistically inconclusive, mechanism-consistent* hypothesis rather than an established effect; the exact computation is reproducible (§3, `stage5_bootstrap_ci.py`). A marginal-value robustness examination (JOLTS/Beveridge leads, ±72-month lag search, weak-signal pooling, with an explicit multiple-comparisons disclosure) adds the fed-funds 3-month tightening pace as the strongest continuous predictor (+0.13-0.16 AUC) and JOLTS openings as a contributor (+0.04-0.09 AUC), while recording housing's -36-month lead as model-redundant (+0.000 AUC). Specifies a **reader-repeatable, sum-of-products index formula** (§6.1: per-family coefficients and time leads) — **and now (§6.2) subjects it to out-of-sample validation against realised recessions: it fired into 2004 and 2020-21 (no recession), was silent into 2001 and 2007-08, and its near-term reading rests on a single ongoing tariff episode. Verdict: the implemented composite is not ready for prime time — a research instrument whose method is valid but whose weight-1.0 single-family construction requires breadth, a clean elevation→recession record, and a recalibrated regime hold.** Future-work roadmap in §10 (including a planned subscriber weighting sandbox). Open publication, caveats disclosed (§8): small shock samples, thin walk-forward, multicollinearity, short HY/IG OAS coverage.
  → [forward_horizon_disruption_impulse_recession_signal.html](https://stratmac.cc/papers/forward_horizon_disruption_impulse_recession_signal.html) (read the brief) · [forward_horizon_disruption_impulse_recession_signal.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/forward_horizon_disruption_impulse_recession_signal.md) (markdown)

## Papers

### Real-Estate Sector Forecasting (journal-article prep, added 2026-08-22)

*Literature directly supporting the HOUST/PERMIT/RE-sector prediction journal article. Full
methods + openings + R&D/value rankings: `strategy/re-sector-literature-and-methods.md`.*

- Gustavo Cortes; Cameron LaPoint. [Housing Is the Financial Cycle: Evidence from 100 Years of Local Building Permits](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4855353)
  → [housing_is_the_financial_cycle_permits.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/housing_is_the_financial_cycle_permits.md)
- Edward E. Leamer. [Housing is the Business Cycle](https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428)
  → [housing_is_the_business_cycle_leamer.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/housing_is_the_business_cycle_leamer.md)
- Bank of Canada. [Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment (WP 2005-41)](https://www.oar-rao.bank-banque-canada.ca/record/1346/files/wp05-41.pdf)
  → [modelling_forecasting_housing_investment_bofc.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/modelling_forecasting_housing_investment_bofc.md)
- Institute for Economic Research (Slovenia). [Investigating the Residential Investment Dynamics in Slovenia (BVAR)](https://www.ier.si/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/monografija_07-2023.pdf)
  → [bayesian_var_residential_investment_slovenia.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/bayesian_var_residential_investment_slovenia.md)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Real-Time House Price Model: U.S. Housing Market](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0115)
  → [dallas_fed_real_time_house_price_model.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/dallas_fed_real_time_house_price_model.md)
- David E. Rapach; Jack K. Strauss. [Forecasting Real Housing Price Growth in the Eighth District States](https://cre.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/A-Brief-Review-of-House-Price-Forecasting-Methods-Counselors-of-Real-Estate.pdf)
  → [rapach_strauss_state_house_price_forecast.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/rapach_strauss_state_house_price_forecast.md)
- Michael A. Sklarz; Norman G. Miller; Will Gersch. [Forecasting Using Long-Order Autoregressive Processes: An Example Using Housing Starts](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00438)
  → [sklarz_housing_starts_autoregressive.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/sklarz_housing_starts_autoregressive.md)
- Greg Kaplan; Kurt Mitman; Giovanni Violante. [The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23694)
  → [kaplan_mitman_violante_housing_boom_bust.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/kaplan_mitman_violante_housing_boom_bust.md)
- National Association of Home Builders. [NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) — methodology and forecast use](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index)
  → [nahb_housing_market_index_methodology.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/nahb_housing_market_index_methodology.md)
- (Synthesis). [A Review of ARIMA vs. Machine Learning Approaches for Time Series Forecasting](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/15/8/255)
  → [arima_vs_machine_learning_forecasting.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/arima_vs_machine_learning_forecasting.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] critical infrastructure economic resilience](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=critical%20infrastructure%20economic%20resilience&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_critical_infrastructure_economic_resilience.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_critical_infrastructure_economic_resilience.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] economic stratification three-tier](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=economic%20stratification%20three-tier&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_economic_stratification_three_tier.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_economic_stratification_three_tier.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] foundational economy](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=foundational%20economy&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_foundational_economy.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_foundational_economy.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infranomics](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infranomics&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infranomics.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infranomics.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrapopulism](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrapopulism&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrapopulism.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrapopulism.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrastructure finance political economy](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrastructure%20finance%20political%20economy&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrastructure_finance_political_economy.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrastructure_finance_political_economy.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrastructure foundational economy](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrastructure%20foundational%20economy&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrastructure_foundational_economy.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrastructure_foundational_economy.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrastructure investment economic development](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrastructure%20investment%20economic%20development&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrastructure_investment_economic_development.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrastructure_investment_economic_development.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrastructure productivity growth](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrastructure%20productivity%20growth&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrastructure_productivity_growth.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrastructure_productivity_growth.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrastructure sovereignty economic](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrastructure%20sovereignty%20economic&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrastructure_sovereignty_economic.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrastructure_sovereignty_economic.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] infrastructure sovereignty index](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=infrastructure%20sovereignty%20index&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_infrastructure_sovereignty_index.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_infrastructure_sovereignty_index.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] physical-territorial anchoring](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=physical-territorial%20anchoring&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_physical_territorial_anchoring.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_physical_territorial_anchoring.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] public capital infrastructure](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=public%20capital%20infrastructure&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_public_capital_infrastructure.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_public_capital_infrastructure.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] strategic infrastructure geopolitical](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=strategic%20infrastructure%20geopolitical&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_strategic_infrastructure_geopolitical.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_strategic_infrastructure_geopolitical.md)

- RePEc/IDEAS. [[RePEc search] structural power economic](https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?q=structural%20power%20economic&ul=&exclude=&sort=wn&b=main&wm=wrd)
  → [_repec_search_structural_power_economic.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/_repec_search_structural_power_economic.md)

- Gopal K. Basak; Pranab Kumar Das; Allena Rohit. [A Mathematical Model of Foreign Capital Inflow](https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.02438v2)
  → [a_mathematical_model_of_foreign_capital_inflow.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/a_mathematical_model_of_foreign_capital_inflow.md)

- Ahmed M. Alaa; Kartik Ahuja; Mihaela van der Schaar. [A Micro-foundation of Social Capital in Evolving Social Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.02429v1)
  → [a_micro_foundation_of_social_capital_in_evolving_social_netw.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/a_micro_foundation_of_social_capital_in_evolving_social_netw.md)

- Kshama Dwarakanath; Tucker Balch; Svitlana Vyetrenko. [ABIDES-Economist: Agent-Based Simulator of Economic Systems with Learning Agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09563v2)
  → [abides_economist_agent_based_simulator_of_economic_systems_w.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/abides_economist_agent_based_simulator_of_economic_systems_w.md)

- Sergio Cruzes. [AI Infrastructure Sovereignty](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10900v4)
  → [ai_infrastructure_sovereignty.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/ai_infrastructure_sovereignty.md)

- Shubhabrata Das; Marie Kratz. [Alarm System for Insurance Companies: A Strategy for Capital Allocation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1006.5473v1)
  → [alarm_system_for_insurance_companies_a_strategy_for_capital_.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/alarm_system_for_insurance_companies_a_strategy_for_capital_.md)

- Ondrej Hudak; Jana Tothova. [Automated Trading Systems: Developed and Emerging Capital Markets](https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0505032v2)
  → [automated_trading_systems_developed_and_emerging_capital_mar.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/automated_trading_systems_developed_and_emerging_capital_mar.md)

- Ju-Chun Ko. [Bilingual Bias in Large Language Models: A Taiwan Sovereignty Benchmark Study](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.06371v2)
  → [bilingual_bias_in_large_language_models_a_taiwan_sovereignty.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/bilingual_bias_in_large_language_models_a_taiwan_sovereignty.md)

- Andrey Andreev; Tom Morrell; Kristin Briney; Sandra Gesing; Uri Manor. [Biologists need modern data infrastructure on campus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.07631v1)
  → [biologists_need_modern_data_infrastructure_on_campus.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/biologists_need_modern_data_infrastructure_on_campus.md)

- Abraham Atsiwo; Andrey Sarantsev. [Capital Asset Pricing Model with Size Factor and Normalizing by Volatility Index](https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.19444v7)
  → [capital_asset_pricing_model_with_size_factor_and_normalizing.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/capital_asset_pricing_model_with_size_factor_and_normalizing.md)

- Markus Eller; Niko Hauzenberger; Florian Huber; Helene Schuberth; Lukas Vashold. [Capital Flows and the Stabilizing Role of Macroprudential Policies in CESEE](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.06391v1)
  → [capital_flows_and_the_stabilizing_role_of_macroprudential_po.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/capital_flows_and_the_stabilizing_role_of_macroprudential_po.md)

- Jonny L. Saunders. [Decentralized Infrastructure for (Neuro)science](https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.07493v1)
  → [decentralized_infrastructure_for_neuro_science.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/decentralized_infrastructure_for_neuro_science.md)

- Frank Timmes; Rich Townsend; Lars Bildsten. [Digital Infrastructure in Astrophysics](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.02559v1)
  → [digital_infrastructure_in_astrophysics.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/digital_infrastructure_in_astrophysics.md)

- Atif Ansar; Bent Flyvbjerg; Alexander Budzier; Daniel Lunn. [Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.00415v1)
  → [does_infrastructure_investment_lead_to_economic_growth_or_ec.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/does_infrastructure_investment_lead_to_economic_growth_or_ec.md)

- Elena Rudakova; Alla Pavlova; Oleg Antonov; Kira Kuntsevich; Yue Yang. [Economic prospects of the Russian-Chinese partnership in the logistics projects of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: a scientific literature review](https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.03116v1)
  → [economic_prospects_of_the_russian_chinese_partnership_in_the.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/economic_prospects_of_the_russian_chinese_partnership_in_the.md)

- Weiwei Gu; Jar-der Luo; Jifan Liu. [Exploring Small-World Network with an Elite-Clique: Bringing Embeddedness Theory into the Dynamic Evolution of a Venture Capital Network](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.07471v1)
  → [exploring_small_world_network_with_an_elite_clique_bringing_.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/exploring_small_world_network_with_an_elite_clique_bringing_.md)

- Massimo Finocchiaro Castroa; Calogero Guccio; Ilde Rizzo. [How 'one-size-fits-all' public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.10776v1)
  → [how_one_size_fits_all_public_works_contract_does_it_better_a.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/how_one_size_fits_all_public_works_contract_does_it_better_a.md)

- Rama K. Malladi; Phillip Thompson. [Idaho Blacks: Quiet Economic Triumph of Enduring Champions](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.03676v1)
  → [idaho_blacks_quiet_economic_triumph_of_enduring_champions.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/idaho_blacks_quiet_economic_triumph_of_enduring_champions.md)

- Simone Righi; Yuri Biondi. [Inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process: A computational economic analysis](https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.03951v1)
  → [inequality_mobility_and_the_financial_accumulation_process_a.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/inequality_mobility_and_the_financial_accumulation_process_a.md)

- Kubatbek K. Rakhimov. [Infranomics: The Foundational Economic Stratum — A Canonical Definition with Operational Index](https://stratmac.cc/papers/infranomics.md)
  → [infranomics.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/infranomics.md)

- Yingche Liu; Mengyang Li. [Mapping Socio-Economic Divides with Urban Mobility Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08598v1)
  → [mapping_socio_economic_divides_with_urban_mobility_data.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/mapping_socio_economic_divides_with_urban_mobility_data.md)

- Pierre-André Chiappori; Alfred Galichon; Bernard Salanié. [On Human Capital and Team Stability](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.06487v1)
  → [on_human_capital_and_team_stability.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/on_human_capital_and_team_stability.md)

- Wenyuan Wang; Kaixin Yan; Xiang Yu. [Optimal dividend and capital injection under spectrally positive Markov additive models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.02661v2)
  → [optimal_dividend_and_capital_injection_under_spectrally_posi.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/optimal_dividend_and_capital_injection_under_spectrally_posi.md)

- Melanie Archipley; Hannah S. Dalgleish; Eva-Maria Ahrer; Daniel Mortimer. [Reaching Diverse Groups in Long-Term Astronomy Public Engagement Efforts](https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08783v1)
  → [reaching_diverse_groups_in_long_term_astronomy_public_engage.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/reaching_diverse_groups_in_long_term_astronomy_public_engage.md)

- Olusesan Michael Awoleye. [Reconfiguring Data Infrastructure Ecosystem in Africa: A Primer Toward Digital Sovereignty](https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.14186v2)
  → [reconfiguring_data_infrastructure_ecosystem_in_africa_a_prim.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/reconfiguring_data_infrastructure_ecosystem_in_africa_a_prim.md)

- Ondrej Hudak; Jana Tothova. [Social Behaviour of Agents: Capital Markets and Their Small Perturbations](https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0505086v2)
  → [social_behaviour_of_agents_capital_markets_and_their_small_p.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/social_behaviour_of_agents_capital_markets_and_their_small_p.md)

- Botao Amber Hu; Helena Rong. [Sovereign Agents: Towards Infrastructural Sovereignty and Diffused Accountability in Decentralized AI](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.14951v1)
  → [sovereign_agents_towards_infrastructural_sovereignty_and_dif.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/sovereign_agents_towards_infrastructural_sovereignty_and_dif.md)

- Sakib Mahmud Khan; Mashrur Chowdhury; Eric A Morris; Lipika Deka. [Synergizing Roadway Infrastructure Investment with Digital Infrastructure for Infrastructure-Based Connected Vehicle Applications: Review of Current Status and Future Directions](https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.05997v4)
  → [synergizing_roadway_infrastructure_investment_with_digital_i.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/synergizing_roadway_infrastructure_investment_with_digital_i.md)

- John Prpic; Prashant Shukla. [The Theory of Crowd Capital](https://arxiv.org/abs/1210.2013v1)
  → [the_theory_of_crowd_capital.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/the_theory_of_crowd_capital.md)

- Abdullah Al Hasib; Abdullah Azfar; Md. Sarwar Morshed. [Towards Public Key Infrastructure less authentication in Session Initiation Protocol](https://arxiv.org/abs/1002.1160v1)
  → [towards_public_key_infrastructure_less_authentication_in_ses.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/towards_public_key_infrastructure_less_authentication_in_ses.md)

- Aisling Gough; Ruth F Hunter; Oluwaseun Ajao; Anna Jurek; Gary McKeown; Jun Hong; Eimear Barrett; Marbeth Ferguson; Gerry McElwee; Miriam McCarthy; Frank Kee. [Tweet for Behavior Change: Using Social Media for the Dissemination of Public Health Messages](https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.08813v1)
  → [tweet_for_behavior_change_using_social_media_for_the_dissemi.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/tweet_for_behavior_change_using_social_media_for_the_dissemi.md)

- Lynn Cominsky; Kevin McLin; Aurore Simonnet; the Fermi Education; Public Outreach Team. [Twelve Years of Education and Public Outreach with the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope](https://arxiv.org/abs/1303.0042v1)
  → [twelve_years_of_education_and_public_outreach_with_the_fermi.md](https://stratmac.cc/papers/twelve_years_of_education_and_public_outreach_with_the_fermi.md)