Signal pipeline. Each series is first reduced to a unitless value, then passed through an ARIMA(1,1,0) model (one difference to detrend, one autoregressive lag). The forecast residual — the part of the latest move the model did not predict — is standardized by its rolling volatility into a normal deviate (the σ on each card), ranked against its own full history as an empirical percentile, and confirmed by a 3-period same-sign streak before a green / red / amber color is committed.

De-dollarization. Dollar magnitudes are shown primarily as ratios to the real economy — debt/GDP, trade balance/GDP, loans/GDP, net worth/GDP, medical cost/GDP. Expressing a stock or flow in units of the economy that produces it makes the reading robust to dollar debasement: both the numerator and the denominator are priced in the same unit, so a rise in the price level cancels out of the ratio. Pragmatic de-dollarization, not revealed truth.

Reading the cards. The badge is the current σ/percentile; the trace is the de-dollarized level over time. An amber-pulsing trace means the long-term slope and the near-term ARIMA reading disagree — a genuine ambiguity, shown honestly rather than forced one way.