Research Library
50 papers · catalog updated 2026-09-29
Original StratMac studies
Relative Wealth Signals for the "Renegade" G20 Economies: A Methodological Investigation — DeepSeek v4 Flash (principal author; M. Landis, advisory) (2026-08-07) [read the brief]Documents every source and USD-conversion method evaluated for the Turkey/Argentina/EU wealth cards, the empirical validation against UBS anchors, the structural reason high-inflation economies cannot be FX-converted from WID, and the decision to leave them unpublished.
Forecasting Recessions from a Broad, Lag-Aligned Signal Panel, and the Forward-Horizon Disruption-Impulse Signal — DeepSeek 2.5 Flash (principal author; M. Landis, advisory; contact [email protected]) (2026-08-12, rev. 2026-08-13) [read the brief]Peer-review-ready working paper on the five-stage recession pipeline. Reports the forward-horizon method showing trade-policy shocks lead recessions by ~12-18 months (r=+0.55) despite ≈0 coincident correlation — while energy (coincident, not leading) and biological (COVID-outlier) are correctly demoted. The headline signature is honestly bounded: at an effective sample of n=3 episodes (53 autocorrelated months) its moving-block bootstrap 95% CI spans zero ([−0.138, +0.841]) and its autocorrelation-preserving permutation p≈0.08 — a statistically inconclusive, mechanism-consistent hypothesis rather than an established effect; the exact computation is reproducible (§3, stage5_bootstrap_ci.py). A marginal-value robustness examination (JOLTS/Beveridge leads, ±72-month lag search, weak-signal pooling, with an explicit multiple-comparisons disclosure) adds the fed-funds 3-month tightening pace as the strongest continuous predictor (+0.13-0.16 AUC) and JOLTS openings as a contributor (+0.04-0.09 AUC), while recording housing's -36-month lead as model-redundant (+0.000 AUC). Specifies a reader-repeatable, sum-of-products index formula (§6.1: per-family coefficients and time leads) — and now (§6.2) subjects it to out-of-sample validation against realised recessions: it fired into 2004 and 2020-21 (no recession), was silent into 2001 and 2007-08, and its near-term reading rests on a single ongoing tariff episode. Verdict: the implemented composite is not ready for prime time — a research instrument whose method is valid but whose weight-1.0 single-family construction requires breadth, a clean elevation→recession record, and a recalibrated regime hold. Future-work roadmap in §10 (including a planned subscriber weighting sandbox). Open publication, caveats disclosed (§8): small shock samples, thin walk-forward, multicollinearity, short HY/IG OAS coverage.
Papers
Energy & Staple-Cost De-Dollarization (added 2026-09-01)
Directly support the staples/commodities card rescale decision: the *_GDP ratio (price ÷ GDP) is the de-dollarized cost signal; its recognizable-number counterpart is the expenditure share (price × volume ÷ GDP, in %) — Hamilton's framing, the "middle choice" from the 2026-09-01 staples discussion. The index-rebase (base=100) alternative is also filed below (Jacks; Blomberg–Harris).
From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run — David S. Jacks. [source] [read]
The Commodity-Consumer Price Connection: Fact or Fable? — S. Brock Blomberg; Ethan S. Harris. [source] [read]
Reassessing the U.S. Economy's Vulnerability to Oil Shocks — Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [source] [read]
Federal Reserve System Working Papers (added 2026-09-28)
Mined from the SM institutional mailbox ([email protected]), which is an agent-read research stream rather than a human inbox. The Atlanta Fed "Working Papers" series is the Reserve System's own working-paper stream; the six entries below are the WP 2026-11 through 2026-16 releases announced between 2026-08-03 and 2026-09-28, harvested with their abstracts verbatim from atlantafed.org and each mapped to the SM section it bears on. The rest of the Reserve Bank mail in the backlog is recurring dashboard and tool notification (GDPNow, Taylor Rule Utility, Underlying Inflation Dashboard, Sticky-Price CPI, Wage Growth Tracker, Market Probability Tracker, HOAM, Beige Book, H.2, SR Letters, FRASER News) — those are data sources and reference releases, not papers, and belong in the sources layer rather than as library entries.
Mortgage Lock-in: A Review of the Literature — Kristopher Gerardi; Franklin Qian; David Zhang. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed WP 2026-11
Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting — Adrien Matray; Karsten Müller; Chenzi Xu; Poorya Kabir. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed WP 2026-12
Shipping Cost Shocks and US Producer Prices: Normal versus Crisis Pass-through — Simon Gilchrist; Bin Wei; Vivian Z. Yue; Egon Zakrajšek. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed WP 2026-13
Testing for Contemporaneous Exogeneity in Linear Time-Series Models — Prosper Dovonon; Nikolay Gospodinov. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed WP 2026-14
Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Principal Components When Not All Months Are the Same — Patrick Higgins. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed WP 2026-15
Bailing Out (Firms') Uninsured Deposits: A Quantitative Analysis — N. Aaron Pancost; Roberto Robatto. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed WP 2026-16
Beyond-GDP Alternatives (added 2026-09-29)
Five references on measuring economic health beyond headline GDP — the measurement critique behind StratMac's insistence on the real signal rather than the nominal aggregate. Four of the five sat on disk as an unlisted frontmatter stub plus a fuller plain-text companion describing the same source, so neither was reachable from this catalogue; on 2026-09-29 the substance was merged into the frontmatter file (the file named on each entry below) and the companion removed, leaving each reference exactly one file. Nothing was dropped.
8 Ways of Measuring Economic Health (Updated 2024) — CPA Australia (INTHEBLACK). [source] [read] eight measures plus GNH
Three Other Ways to Measure Economic Health Beyond GDP — Praew Grittayaphong (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Open Vault). [source] [read] Open Vault, 2023-04-19
Exploring Viable GDP Alternatives for the AI Age — Julia McCoy (First Movers). [source] [read] what survives when labour stops being the unit
GDP, GDI, and GDO: An Evaluation of Output Measures for Productivity Analysis — Shawn Sprague (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, 2026-01). [source] [read] DOI 10.21916/mlr.2026.2
What Alternatives Are There to GDP? — World Economic Forum. [source] [read] GDP 2.0, well-being, consumption, satellite accounts
Policy Hub & Macroblog (Atlanta Fed, added 2026-09-29)
Four entries deposited by stratmac from the SM institutional mailbox ([email protected]), each mapped to the cards it bears on and each verified live (HTTP 200) on 2026-09-29. No magnitude is quoted in any of them: the notification carried none and the underlying documents were not extracted. Only the Policy Hub paper has a PDF (deposited alongside its markdown); the three Macroblog posts are HTML-only, so there is no PDF to deposit. Two further items from the same mail were deliberately held as sources rather than entries — the Policy Hub synopsis of the shipping-cost paper already catalogued above as atlanta_fed_shipping_cost_ppi_passthrough_wp2026_13.md (that would double-list one result), and the FRED Blog post "Does Generative AI Save Time at Work?" (https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2026/08/does-generative-ai-save-time-at-work/), a productivity/AI item with no StratMac card to hang it on.
Downside Risk to the Stock Market and Consumption — Indrajit Mitra; David Rapach. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed Policy Hub paper, 2026-09-02
How Are Firms Using Their Tariff Refunds? — Jose Maria Barrero; Nick Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Kevin Foster; Aaron Jalca; Brent Meyer; Emil Mihaylov; Michael Navarrete. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed Policy Hub Macroblog, 2026-09-21
Monetary Policy Stance and Financial Conditions — Nikolay Gospodinov. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed Policy Hub Macroblog, 2026-08-18
Parsing the Relationship between Demographics and Inflation — Nikolay Gospodinov. [source] [read] Atlanta Fed Policy Hub Macroblog, 2026-08-04
Real-Estate Sector Forecasting (journal-article prep, added 2026-08-22)
Literature directly supporting the HOUST/PERMIT/RE-sector prediction journal article. Full methods + openings + R&D/value rankings: strategy/re-sector-literature-and-methods.md.
Housing Is the Financial Cycle: Evidence from 100 Years of Local Building Permits — Gustavo Cortes; Cameron LaPoint. [source] [read]
Investigating the Residential Investment Dynamics in Slovenia (BVAR) — Institute for Economic Research (Slovenia). [source] [read]
Real-Time House Price Model: U.S. Housing Market — Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [source] [read]
Forecasting Real Housing Price Growth in the Eighth District States — David E. Rapach; Jack K. Strauss. [source] [read]
Forecasting Using Long-Order Autoregressive Processes: An Example Using Housing Starts — Michael A. Sklarz; Norman G. Miller; Will Gersch. [source] [read]
The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence — Greg Kaplan; Kurt Mitman; Giovanni Violante. [source] [read]
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) — methodology and forecast use — National Association of Home Builders. [source] [read]
A Review of ARIMA vs. Machine Learning Approaches for Time Series Forecasting — (Synthesis). [source] [read]
General Harvest — arXiv & RePEc (2026-07-28 sweep)
The library's original machine harvest: 26 arXiv abstracts swept on 2026-07-28 by literal keyword match (infranomics, infrastructure, sovereignty, capital) rather than curated relevance, plus the StratMac-hosted infranomics.md (Rakhimov, APPLICATA — the canonical infranomics paper) and 15 RePEc saved searches. Every swept file carries the same four-item boilerplate keyword tag (infranomics, infrastructure_economics, economic_stratification, sovereignty_infrastructure) whatever its content, so that tag is not a relevance signal. A raw harvest can therefore read as a topical claim it cannot support, so all 27 entries were screened one by one on 2026-09-29 against a single test: read the ABSTRACT — not the title, not the keywords — and keep the entry only if the paper's own subject is economic, financial or economic-policy work. Thirteen failed it and were delisted. From the first pass (fleet/kanban t_a50f6123): Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope education/outreach, Reaching Diverse Groups in Astronomy, Public Key Infrastructure in SIP (networking), Tweet for Behavior Change (public health). From this screen (t_fba99ffa): Biologists need modern data infrastructure (biology data management), Decentralized Infrastructure for (Neuro)science (scientific computing), Digital Infrastructure in Astrophysics (astronomy tooling), Reconfiguring Data Infrastructure in Africa (data governance / digital-sovereignty policy), Bilingual Bias in Large Language Models (an LLM-behaviour benchmark), Sovereign Agents (decentralized-AI governance theory), AI Infrastructure Sovereignty (a data-centre / optical transport survey), Synergizing Roadway Infrastructure Investment with Digital Infrastructure (a connected-vehicle engineering review) and The Theory of Crowd Capital (knowledge management — crowd capital is knowledge, not capital). The catalogue line and the papers/*.md file were removed together in every case; the deploy mirrors papers/*.md, so a delisting does reach the host. What remains is the 17 arXiv abstracts plus the hosted infranomics.md whose abstracts make an economic argument — capital flows and asset pricing, capital allocation and insurance risk, infrastructure investment and public procurement, labour, inequality and financial accumulation, financial-market modelling, and socio-economic measurement. Two are kept as closer to the line but genuinely economic in subject: Alarm System for Insurance Companies (capital allocation / ruin theory) and Idaho Blacks (US racial economic disparity). The 15 RePEc items are saved searches — bookmarks, not papers — and are excluded from the stated total.
A Mathematical Model of Foreign Capital Inflow — Gopal K. Basak; Pranab Kumar Das; Allena Rohit. [source] [read]
A Micro-foundation of Social Capital in Evolving Social Networks — Ahmed M. Alaa; Kartik Ahuja; Mihaela van der Schaar. [source] [read]
ABIDES-Economist: Agent-Based Simulator of Economic Systems with Learning Agents — Kshama Dwarakanath; Tucker Balch; Svitlana Vyetrenko. [source] [read]
Alarm System for Insurance Companies: A Strategy for Capital Allocation — Shubhabrata Das; Marie Kratz. [source] [read]
Automated Trading Systems: Developed and Emerging Capital Markets — Ondrej Hudak; Jana Tothova. [source] [read]
Capital Asset Pricing Model with Size Factor and Normalizing by Volatility Index — Abraham Atsiwo; Andrey Sarantsev. [source] [read]
Capital Flows and the Stabilizing Role of Macroprudential Policies in CESEE — Markus Eller; Niko Hauzenberger; Florian Huber; Helene Schuberth; Lukas Vashold. [source] [read]
Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China — Atif Ansar; Bent Flyvbjerg; Alexander Budzier; Daniel Lunn. [source] [read]
Economic prospects of the Russian-Chinese partnership in the logistics projects of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: a scientific literature review — Elena Rudakova; Alla Pavlova; Oleg Antonov; Kira Kuntsevich; Yue Yang. [source] [read]
Exploring Small-World Network with an Elite-Clique: Bringing Embeddedness Theory into the Dynamic Evolution of a Venture Capital Network — Weiwei Gu; Jar-der Luo; Jifan Liu. [source] [read]
How 'one-size-fits-all' public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy — Massimo Finocchiaro Castroa; Calogero Guccio; Ilde Rizzo. [source] [read]
Idaho Blacks: Quiet Economic Triumph of Enduring Champions — Rama K. Malladi; Phillip Thompson. [source] [read]
Inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process: A computational economic analysis — Simone Righi; Yuri Biondi. [source] [read]
Infranomics: The Foundational Economic Stratum — A Canonical Definition with Operational Index — Kubatbek K. Rakhimov. [source] [read]
Mapping Socio-Economic Divides with Urban Mobility Data — Yingche Liu; Mengyang Li. [source] [read]
On Human Capital and Team Stability — Pierre-André Chiappori; Alfred Galichon; Bernard Salanié. [source] [read]